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World Forum: Economies face big risks


first_img KCS-content Show Comments ▼ World Forum: Economies face big risks whatsapp Tags: NULL WORLD governments have been drained of resources after the financial crisis and are poorly-equipped to handle 21st-century global risks, a new study reported yesterday.Governments are less able to tackle emerging global risks such as shortages of natural resources, an ageing world population and fragile states dominated by illegal activity. But the macroeconomic trends that precipitated the credit crunch are still in evidence, the World Economic Forum Global Risks 2011 report said.Huge fiscal imbalances between indebted developed states and debt-free developing economies leave countries vulnerable to excessive and destabilising capital flows, asset price collapses and volatile currencies.These risks are “coming together in a particularly dangerous cocktail,” said World Economic Forum managing director Robert Greenhill.Most advanced countries are running a fiscally unsustainable position, Daniel Hofman, group chief economist at Zurich Financial Services, said. Public debt in countries such as the US, Ireland, Belgium and Italy is now more than 90 per cent of GDP, a level at which it puts a one per cent drag on growth. Ageing populations, as much a threat to China and Brazil as developed countries, will push states far further into debt. Age-related liabilities are estimated to average 440 per cent of GDP in developed countries – or ten times the average cost of the financial crisis. Shortages of vital resources such as food, water and oil will push price volatility on key commodities to new highs, said John Drzik, chief executive of consultancy Oliver Wyman. “We are experiencing a new age of commodity price volatility and many commodities are at all-time price highs,” he said. Volatility has risen dramatically since 2005 and is set to continue as supplies of corn, wheat, oil and metals struggle to meet demand. But Drzik also blamed financial markets for the problem. “Financial speculators will be an unpredictable source of demand, creating even more volatility in prices,” he said.AT A GLANCE | GLOBAL RISKS IN 2011OVERARCHING RISKSGrowing economic disparity both between and within countries is making it harder for governments to tackle crises, while global governance structures are failing to manage disparate national interests.MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCESWeaknesses left in the global economy from the financial crisis, such as high levels of developed country debt, are creating unsustainable imbalances such as currency and inflationary pressures between countries.ILLEGAL ECONOMIESFragile states supporting illicit trade, organised crime and corruption pose a particular risk to global stability. The deterioration in countries such as Afghanistan undermines rule of law and exacerbates poverty, while illicit trade was estimated to be an $1.3 trillion (£835bn) industry in 2009.NATURAL RESOURCESA growing world population is putting unsustainable pressure on resources. Demand for food, water and energy is predicted to rise by 30-50 per cent by 2030. Shortages may increase commodity price volatility and could spark social unrest, political instability and environmental damage.FIVE RISKS TO WATCHThe report tips cyber-security; demographic challenges from ageing populations; resource security; a backlash against globalisation and renewed threat from weapons of mass destruction as five areas that may have severe and under-appreciated consequences. whatsapp Share Wednesday 12 January 2011 8:29 pm by Taboolaby TaboolaSponsored LinksSponsored LinksPromoted LinksPromoted LinksYou May LikeBewadaHusband Divorced His Wife After Looking Closer At This PhotoBewadavirimi.com14 Efficient Arm Workouts To Build Might & Muscle – Virimivirimi.comAmoMediaMan Leaves Wife For Her Sister, Her Revenge Is BrilliantAmoMediaadvisor15 Plants that Repel Mosquitoes Naturallyadvisorcutenova.comTake a Peek at 10 of the Most Expensive Houses in the Worldcutenova.comHealth.recetasgetHeart Attack Early Warning Signs and SymptomsHealth.recetasgetBuzzDestination7 Types of Men Who Are Not Made For RelationshipsBuzzDestination5log – Livinguard®This mask has been sold out in Germany 5 days after the government has tighten up5log – Livinguard®Mold Removal | Search AdsBathroom Mold Removal Tips That Might Surprise Most AmericansMold Removal | Search Adslast_img read more




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